The population of the Arab world - continuous growth and divergent demographic transitions
The Arab world ranks third in population size after India and China
October 28, 2026, marks the Arab Day for Population and Development, which coincides with the founding date of the Arab Council for Population and Development in 2019. It serves as an occasion to assess the demographic situation of the Arab world's population, encourage the promotion of Arab development efforts, and exchange Arab expertise and experiences in addressing population-related demographic issues and their impacts on achieving sustainable development.
Demographic trends in the Arab region indicate that Arab societies are characterized by varying population sizes and structures, as each is passing through different stages of demographic transition, and they also differ from one another in the proportion of non-Arab populations out of their total populations.
Understanding past and expected demographic changes is of critical importance, given their impact on various aspects of life, as well as their significant and long-term effects on the labor market, economic growth, housing needs, and demand for education, health, and social services.
The Arab Day for Population this year comes as the population of the Arab world has reached about 511 million people (ranking third after India and China), with about 60% of them living in the African part of the Arab world, especially in Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, and Morocco, which are home to about 51% of the Arab world's population. The population of the Arab world is expected to rise to about 591 million in 2035, and to about 718 million by 2050, an increase of about 207 million over the next twenty-four years, with an average annual increase of about 9 million people.
The disparity among Arab countries is not limited to population size but extends to significant differences in fertility levels. Some countries, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Tunisia, recorded low fertility rates (≤ 2 births per woman during her lifetime), which are below the so-called "replacement level." The presence of expatriate populations in the Gulf Arab states may have contributed to influencing the estimate of their total fertility rate. In contrast, fertility rates ranged between 2.1 and 2.9 per woman in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Morocco, Jordan, Syria, Djibouti, Algeria, Palestine, and Egypt. Countries that still record higher fertility rates, between 3 and 3.9 births per woman, include Libya, Iraq, and Yemen. The highest fertility rates are in Somalia, Mauritania, Sudan, and the Comoros, where fertility rates were recorded at (6.4, 4.8, 4.2, and 4 births per woman, respectively).
Arab societies are generally youthful in terms of the age structure of their populations, but there is significant variation in age structure among them due to the differing demographic transitions in their fertility levels and in the proportion and size of their expatriate populations. Most Arab countries are characterized by a youthful population structure, with children under 15 years of age constituting approximately 30% of their total population. However, low-income countries such as Somalia (48%), Yemen (44%), Mauritania (42%), and Sudan (40%) recorded the highest proportions of children under 15, reflecting the impact of high fertility rates in these countries and the impact of population youthfulness on continued population growth resulting from the continued occurrence of high numbers of annual births in these countries as well. This youthful population structure represents a development challenge, particularly in the areas of education, healthcare, nutrition, and social services.
In contrast, most Gulf Arab states recorded a significant decline in the proportion of children under 15, with the proportion reaching 15% in Qatar, 16% in the UAE, and 18% in Kuwait, reflecting a demographic transition resulting from declining fertility rates in these countries and their particular population structure, which is characterized by a high proportion of young expatriate labor.
Older persons (65 years and over) constitute less than 5% of the population in most Arab countries. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates recorded the lowest proportion of older persons among their populations, not exceeding (2%) in each, due to the presence of young expatriate labor. As for Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, and Algeria, they record the highest proportion of older persons, reaching (10%), (9%), (8%), and (7%) respectively, due to declining fertility rates over the past two decades and the presence of a portion of their populations abroad.
